Australia–China 2026: Galloping Towards Opportunity

There is an opportunity Galloping Towards Australia. Australia stands at an extraordinary crossroads in its relationship with China. As we prepare for the Year of the Fire Horse in 2026, a transformative surge of opportunity is galloping towards our shores. Chinese New Year, commencing on Tuesday, 17 February 2026, will usher in a 16-day celebration symbolising vitality, speed, and success, the qualities that perfectly mirror the dynamic growth of Australia-China business relations.

The timing couldn't be more significant. Chinese visitor numbers to Australia reached 891,550 in the year ending December 2024, representing a remarkable recovery from pandemic lows. Tourism Research Australia forecasts this figure will climb to approximately 909,000 in 2026, with projections indicating a full return to pre-pandemic levels of 1.4 million visitors by 2027. More impressively, Chinese visitors spent a staggering $9.2 billion in the 12 months to March 2025, making China Australia's largest tourism market by expenditure and representing a quarter of all short-term international visitor spending. ​

Yet amidst this golden opportunity, a critical question emerges: Is Australian business truly prepared to capitalise on this growth? The Australia China Business Council (ACBC) has launched a ground-breaking China Capability Program survey to answer precisely this question—and your participation is essential.

Australia is home to one of the world's most vibrant Chinese communities outside Asia. According to the 2023 census, 655,790 Chinese-born people were living in Australia, representing the third-largest migrant community after the United Kingdom and India. When we expand this to include people of Chinese ancestry, the numbers become even more striking: 1,390,693 Australians identified as having Chinese heritage in the 2021 census, comprising 5.5% of our national population.​

Language statistics reveal the profound cultural presence within our community. Mandarin speakers numbered 685,274 in 2021, making it the second most commonly spoken language in Australia after English, accounting for 2.7% of the population. When combined with Cantonese speakers, approximately 980,555 Australians speak Chinese languages at home, representing 4.0% of the national population.

The Chinese tourism sector is experiencing explosive growth. Chinese visitation grew by 26% in the past 12 months, making it the fastest-growing international source market for Australia. In the year ending March 2025, Chinese tourists spent over 7 million nights in Australian hotels and resorts, with New South Wales welcoming 493,600 Chinese visitors who spent $4,303.2 million—a 33.3% increase year-on-year.

Industry forecasts paint an even more promising picture. Chinese arrivals are expected to increase by 70% to reach 909,000 in 2026, eventually surpassing pre-pandemic figures by 2027. By 2029, China is forecast to reclaim its position as Australia's largest inbound market with 1.72 million visitors. Tourism Australia managing director Phillipa Harrison confirmed China's trajectory, noting it currently sits as our second-largest market for inbound tourist arrivals, with only neighbouring New Zealand ahead.

The economic significance cannot be overstated. A return to pre-pandemic visitation levels could yield an additional $5 billion in revenue for the Australian economy, supporting close to three-quarters of a million jobs.

Chinese New Year 2026 carries special cultural weight. The Fire Horse (赤馬, chì mǎ) represents a potent combination of the horse's natural energy—vitality, speed, and perseverance—amplified by the Fire element, which symbolises passion, enthusiasm, dynamism, and innovation. In Chinese culture, horses are representatives of heroes and talents, and the phrase "马到成功" (mǎ dào chéng gōng) literally means "success arrives with the horse," signifying swift and smooth achievement. ​

For Australian businesses, this symbolism translates into practical opportunities. The 16-day celebration period from 17 February to 3 March 2026 represents peak travel season for Chinese tourists. Australian cities experience massive celebrations, with Melbourne hosting 10 days of festivities and Sydney's 17-day celebration attracting over one million attendees. These events create concentrated periods of consumer activity, cultural engagement, and business networking opportunities. ​

Understanding and preparing for these cultural moments demonstrates respect, builds relationships, and positions businesses to capture maximum value during peak periods. Yet many Australian businesses remain underprepared for this influx.

Since 1973, the Australia China Business Council has stood at the forefront of Australia's economic engagement with China, facilitating business leads, bridging networks, and providing crucial market insights. The ACBC's primary focus centres on promoting two-way investment and trade between Australia and China, serving as the leading business organisation between our two countries. ​

The China Capability Program survey seeks to understand how Australian businesses currently engage with China and identify the capabilities, support, and services that will deliver the most value moving forward. This research directly informs the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations' three-year grant awarded to ACBC for the "Strengthening Australian Industry and Business China Capability" project.

Your responses will shape strategic learning programs, in-person and digital training initiatives, and long-term assets for ACBC members. The survey takes approximately 10 minutes to complete, and all responses remain strictly confidential, with findings reported only in aggregate. This anonymity ensures honest feedback whilst protecting individual business sensitivities. ​

The survey's outcomes will directly influence policy recommendations to the Australian Government on commercial relations with China. ACBC plays an influential advisory role, and member input through this survey strengthens evidence-based advocacy for policies that promote strong, sustainable business ties benefiting the entire Australian community.

Australia-China relations have entered a period of cautious optimism following years of strain. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's official visit to China in July 2025 marked significant progress in stabilising trade ties and reopening diplomatic dialogue. During the visit, Tourism Australia and Trip.com Group, one of the world's largest travel agencies, signed a Memorandum of Understanding to promote Australia as a destination for travellers from China and key Asian markets. ​

Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed China's readiness to maintain strategic communication with Australia, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, and build a more mature, stable, and productive comprehensive strategic partnership. These high-level commitments create favourable conditions for business growth, but success requires Australian businesses to develop appropriate capabilities and understanding. ​

Several market trends are reshaping Chinese engagement with Australia. Special interest travel has emerged prominently, including themed experiences covering sports, food, culture, nature, and photography. Short education-centric travel for primary and secondary students and their families has grown steadily. ​

Travel formats have shifted decisively towards small groups, with single, couple, and family travel (fewer than six people) dominating since COVID-19. Travellers increasingly seek flexibility in their itineraries and more intimate travel experiences. Aviation capacity has strengthened dramatically, with flights from 14 Chinese cities into Australia servicing five Australian gateways, and January 2025 capacity exceeding same-period 2019 levels. ​

Understanding these nuanced shifts requires systematic research and capability development—precisely what the ACBC survey aims to facilitate.

Despite China's significance as Australia's largest trading partner and second-largest tourism market, profound capability gaps persist. A 2019 analysis revealed that out of 25 million Australians, only 130 people of non-Chinese background can speak Mandarin at a level sufficient for business. This stark statistic underscores the urgent need for enhanced China literacy across Australian business. ​

The number of Year 12 students studying Chinese has dropped significantly since 2005, creating a future workforce ill-equipped to engage with our most important economic partner. While Mandarin is taught in Australian schools, it remains concentrated in metropolitan areas, and non-Chinese students more commonly study European languages or Japanese.

China capability extends far beyond language proficiency. It encompasses understanding Chinese business culture, consumer preferences, regulatory environments, digital ecosystems, and relationship-building practices. For tourism operators, it includes knowledge of peak travel periods, gifting customs, dietary requirements, payment preferences (including WeChat Pay and Alipay), and communication styles.

The ACBC survey explores these multifaceted dimensions, seeking to map current capabilities and identify priority areas for development. Your input provides crucial data points that shape training programs, resource allocation, and support services.

The survey interface is user-friendly, with clear instructions guiding you through each section. Budget approximately 10 minutes for completion, though you may take longer if providing detailed responses.

Answer questions honestly and comprehensively. Your candid assessment of current capabilities, challenges, and support needs provides the most valuable data. The survey covers how your business currently engages with China, what obstacles you face, what resources would prove most helpful, and what future opportunities you're exploring.

Crucially, ensure you click 'Submit' at the survey's conclusion to guarantee your responses are collected. Incomplete submissions cannot be recovered or analysed.

The survey welcomes participation from diverse business sectors and sizes. Whether you're already actively engaged with Chinese markets, considering future engagement, or serving Chinese customers in Australia, your perspective matters. Small and medium enterprises form the core of ACBC membership, but corporate members, exporters, service providers, and Chinese firms operating in Australia all contribute valuable insights. ​

If your business interacts with Chinese tourists, exports to China, sources from Chinese suppliers, competes with Chinese firms, or serves Chinese-Australian communities, you possess relevant experience worth sharing.

Survey participation delivers both individual and collective benefits. At the individual level, the process prompts valuable reflection on your current China capabilities, strategic priorities, and development needs. Many participants report that simply working through the questions clarifies their thinking and highlights gaps they hadn't fully recognised.

The resulting programs and resources will be directly accessible to survey participants and ACBC members. You're not simply contributing data; you're helping shape services you'll subsequently utilise. Training modules, mentoring programs, industry benchmarks, and capability frameworks emerging from this research will be calibrated to genuine business needs rather than theoretical assumptions.

At the collective level, enhanced China capability across Australian business strengthens our national competitive position. When more businesses can effectively engage Chinese markets and serve Chinese customers, Australia captures greater value from our economic relationship with the world's second-largest economy.

This matters particularly as competition for Chinese tourists intensifies globally. Other destinations are investing heavily in Chinese-language services, cultural customisation, and marketing. Australia's natural advantages—spectacular landscapes, unique wildlife, political stability, and established Chinese communities—provide a strong foundation, but capability development ensures we maintain and extend our competitive edge.

The trajectory for 2026 and 2027 appears exceptionally promising. With Chinese tourist numbers forecast to reach 909,000 in 2026 and surpass 1.4 million by 2027, businesses face an unprecedented opportunity. The Year of the Fire Horse celebrations in February 2026 will draw significant Chinese visitor numbers during a concentrated period. ​

Current aviation capacity supports this growth, with strong flight availability and competitive pricing. Political relations continue stabilising, with institutional dialogues including the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue and joint economic commission actively exploring ways to advance bilateral cooperation. Discussions around reviewing and upgrading the bilateral free trade agreement signal deeper structural integration ahead. ​

Success in this environment requires preparation. Understanding peak travel periods allows tourism operators to optimise staffing and inventory. Recognising Chinese consumer preferences for digital payments, Mandarin-language materials, and specific experiences enables targeted service development. Building relationships with Chinese travel agencies, particularly platforms like Trip.com, opens distribution channels to millions of potential customers. ​

The ACBC survey provides the foundation for this preparation. By identifying collective needs and priorities, it enables resource allocation to high-impact areas and ensures Australian businesses move forward together.

The survey remains open for a limited time. Don't delay your participation—access today and invest 10 minutes in shaping Australia's China future.

As the Fire Horse gallops towards us, bringing energy, enthusiasm, and opportunity, ensure your voice helps guide Australian business towards success. The phrase Chinese phrase"马到成功" means to achieve immediate success,but only if we're prepared to seize it. ​

Your survey participation isn't simply ticking boxes on a questionnaire. It's contributing to a comprehensive understanding of Australian business needs, informing strategic programs worth millions of dollars, and strengthening our collective capability to engage one of the world's most dynamic markets. With over 1.39 million Chinese-Australians calling this country home, nearly one million Chinese speakers in our communities, and close to one million Chinese tourists expected in 2026, the opportunity is immense. ​

The Australia China Business Council has championed Australia-China business relations since 1973. This survey represents the next evolution in that mission—grounded in member needs, responsive to market changes, and focused on practical capability development. Join this effort. Complete the survey. Shape the future.